MID-SHIP Fertilizer – July 29, 2025
July 29, 2025
Market Overview:
Summertime is in full swing. It was a quiet start to the week, with limited activity reported across both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Capes are looking for direction. Panamax, Supra, and Handy suffer from a growing vessel list nearby. It has become a three-day trading market, from Tuesday to Thursday.
Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials will resume talks in Stockholm today, “aiming to extend [an economic] truce by three months and keeping sharply higher tariffs at bay”, according to Reuters. China is facing an August 12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement with President Donald Trump’s administration, after Beijing and Washington reached preliminary deals in May and June to end weeks of escalating tariffs and a cut-off of rare earth minerals.
Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emerged from an hour-long discussion on Sunday with a trade agreement between the U.S. and EU, successfully fending off the president’s threat to slap a 30% tariff on EU-made goods that was due to take effect this coming Friday. Key sectors like autos, semiconductors, aircraft components, chemicals, and generics are exempted under “zero for zero” rules.
Adding to the good news, on Monday morning, President Trump indicated that the baseline universal tariff rate for many partners may fall from 20% to around 15%, easing pressure on trade across the board.
Overall, with the August 1 trade deadline looming for multiple partners, these developments tilt the picture slightly bullish: trade risk is receding, and greater clarity is emerging ahead of key shutdown dates.
The U.S. Dollar just had its worst first half of the year since 1973. It fell about 11% through the end of June compared with other global currencies. As a result, according to a recent European Central Bank report, gold is now the second-largest central-bank holding in the world. (The U.S. dollar remains No. 1, at 47% of bank stores.)
Understand last week a handy size stem Ferts cargo from USG to Brazil basis 1-2 was fixed in the upper 20’s pmt. ICEC was out with a Supramax stem size ferts cargo this week from Vancouver to CHOPT, USG or Brazil. Gathering further details on what rate levels charterers eventually fixed but other operators feel the time charter equivalent is around USD 13k-14k per day basis delivery APS.
Trump’s tariff deadline is on Friday.
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