MID-SHIP Report: Dry Bulk Freight Market – November 19, 2025
November 19, 2025
The Cape market remains resilient, with C3 ore fixtures in the mid-to-upper 24s, pushing rates up by about a dollar over the past week on fronthaul Brazil-China runs.
The Panamax sector is showing signs of improvement, with more support emerging in the Atlantic, while the Pacific remains broadly stable. Activity levels have picked up modestly, but charterers continue to resist any significant rate increases.
The Atlantic Supramax market continues an active tone, with sentiment largely positional. In the North Atlantic, rates held steady as fresh tonnage created a more balanced environment. The Pacific market has remained flat, with supply and demand largely in equilibrium.
The Handysize market has delivered a varied performance this week, with regional conditions creating a mixed trading environment. Overall sentiment has held steady, though the tone has softened slightly in areas facing mounting tonnage pressure. The Atlantic began the week on firmer footing, supported by a tighter supply of prompt vessels in the U.S. Gulf and consistent demand heading into late November. Larger Handysize vessels secured transatlantic fixtures at levels noticeably stronger than in previous weeks, signaling a clear recovery from earlier softness. Conditions in the Continent and Mediterranean have held relatively steady. In contrast, the Pacific Basin has experienced a subdued week so far.
Cargo availability remains thin, especially in Southeast Asia, where open tonnage continues to accumulate.
After being under pressure for an extended period, the Middle East and South Asia markets are now starting to see some light, as strong Indo-Coal and South African markets have encouraged fixing levels in the low-mid teens basis ECI for an Indo round. Long-haul routes ex South Africa continue to trade in the $18,000-$20,000 range plus equivalent ballast bonus. Shorter regional trips are underpinning the market in the mid-teens. A Tess 58′ was recently fixed at $14,500 delivery Mumbai for a trip into AG with salt. In general, the market feels to be trading sideways to mildly firmer. Upside requires confirmation of substantial fertilizer liftings, continued firmness in South Africa, and normalization of Red Sea transits. Failure of either leaves the market exposed to an oversupplied short-term outlook.
Since our previous update two weeks ago, the dry cargo market in S.E. Asia/Far East and Australia has remained relatively stable, with time charter (TC) earnings for handies dipping slightly, while supramax and ultramax indices have edged up. Bunker (VLSFO) prices in Singapore have also held steady, pointing to limited volatility in fuel costs in the near term.
However, forward-looking indicators remain cautious. Futures for December and Q1 2026 are still pointing downward, though the much-anticipated “hard stop” in rates in the new year may be less severe than some had forecast. This suggests a moderating market, rather than a cliff-edge collapse, and may provide some relief to charterers and operators alike — assuming no major external shocks.
Switching to inland logistics, low water is restricting barge traffic along the U.S. inland river system for the 3rd grain season in a row. At the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers in Cairo, IL, river levels have dropped 9 ft below the 10-year average, with New Orleans reporting its lowest levels in 10 years as well. The restrictions that will follow will limit not only the volume to be loaded in barges, but also the number of barges any single towboat may take on a voyage. The low water and accompanying restrictions are expected to hold through November, with river levels forecasted to remain at or slightly below their current levels.
Late October saw a surge in new Chinese soybean orders from the U.S., following the recent trade agreement between the two countries. However, over the last two weeks, it seems trade has stalled, with the bulk of the pledged 12 million tons yet to be moved. Despite the severe shortfall in soybeans this year, U.S. export corn surged to 22.2 million MT, up 77.6% from 2024 (as of September 25).
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