MID-SHIP Alumina/Bauxite – Dec 17, 2024

December 17, 2024

Market Overview: 

Our market has continued to trend downward as we approach the year-end holidays, with trading largely confined to a narrow range.

A combination of factors is contributing to the malaise in dry bulk rates in Q4, beyond ongoing China real estate markets/local government debt concerns and current seasonal preholiday lull. The contributing factors are fundamental in nature: normalized Panama Canal transits returning capacity to the market this year, a steady increase in new build vessel arrivals (predominately geared vessels), better port efficiency, and less port congestion generally (noteworthy, in Brazil, less corn demand from China. A double knock-on effect of less congestion and fewer long haul grain stems); intra segment cannibalization of rates (Panamax competing with Capes and in some cases Panamax infiltrating non-traditional commodity markets) – more broadly it has been about “effective fleet growth.” The rerouting of vessels away from the Suez Canal remains a supportive factor.

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