MID-SHIP Alumina/Bauxite – July 21, 2025
July 21, 2025
Market Overview:
The summer season is in full swing, and many decision makers have been off on holidays in recent weeks and are expected to be in the coming weeks.
The Cape-size market continued its positive momentum last week and continued in the new trading session at the start of this week. Panamax markets were mixed. Supra/Ultras were up nicely across both basins. Both Panamax and Supras appear to have lost some momentum at the start of the new week. Handy-size markets traded up within a narrow range.
China’s National Energy Administration has ordered coal mines exceeding production capacity to suspend operations for rectification, boosting coal stock prices and signaling tighter supply controls. Iron ore and steel prices hit a four-month high, driven by optimism from China’s launch of a $167 billion hydropower dam project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River and efforts to address steel overcapacity. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new program to stabilize growth by eliminating outdated capacity in 10 key industries, including steel and petrochemicals.
The U.S. Treasury Department announced that business equipment production in the U.S. is up nearly 17% annually through the first half of the year—the fastest pace since 1997.
The Trump administration has set August 1, 2025, as the deadline for imposing higher “reciprocal” tariffs on countries that fail to negotiate trade deals, following a 90-day pause on tariffs announced in April. The Trump administration has threatened secondary tariffs of 100% on countries like China and India if they continue to buy Russian oil and gas, with a deadline of September 2, 2025, to pressure Russia into a Ukraine peace deal. The U.S. has also paused reciprocal tariffs on China, reducing them from 145% to 30% for 90 days starting May 14, 2025, to facilitate trade talks, though the 20% fentanyl-related tariff remained.
We anticipate stable freight rates through the summer, with positional volatility nearby. They will likely increase in mid- to second-half September as the Northern Hemisphere’s grain export season begins and U.S. exports to various markets remain strong amid ongoing China trade negotiations. Senior U.S. administration officials project a 3%+ growth rate later this year, signaling positive prospects for global markets. Following early 2025 disruptions, a robust U.S. economy could uplift global trade.
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