MID-SHIP Cement Report – June 12, 2025
June 12, 2025
Market Overview:
The dry bulk market this week is characterized by stable Cape size rates driven by iron ore demand, improved Panamax rates (albeit at low levels historically speaking), Supra’s unexciting, while spot rates for Handy size bulkers sailing from the U.S. Gulf Coast surged to a near seven-month high and broader challenges from positional oversupply and geopolitical trade tensions. Recovery signs are tempered by seasonal and economic headwinds, particularly in China.
In the past week Cape rates improved daily from $18,800 to $24,900 daily. Panamax was mixed and now up slightly. Supra’s down within a narrow range. Handy size held steady overall, trading in a range between $10,750 and $10,813 on the daily time charter average.
The ongoing negotiation and introduction of U.S. tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, and USTR fees and retaliatory actions, including China, continue to create a high level of uncertainty in our market as we navigate the more seasonal summer market in the northern hemisphere.
Steel production in China remains tepid, pressuring rebar prices to a five-year low.
Thermal coal prices recently hit a four-year low, as increased output from major producers has depressed prices, and this oversupply continues to weigh on the seaborne coal market, particularly Panamax in the Pacific. China has urged coal-fired power plants to prioritize domestic coal use. Argus Media reported recently that India’s coal imports (including thermal and coking coal) dropped by 9.2% from April 2024 to February 2025, totaling 220.3 million metric tons. This decline was driven by increased domestic coal production.
U.S.-China trade talks in London on June 9, 2025, aimed at easing trade disputes, could indirectly stabilize commodity demand, including iron ore, but no immediate market impact is reported as of the time of writing.
The OECD forecasts global economic growth to slow to 2.9% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024. This is a revision from their earlier projection of 3.1% for 2025, as noted in the OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 1, published on June 2, 2025. The downgrade is attributed to rising trade barriers, heightened policy uncertainty, tighter financial conditions, and weakening consumer and business confidence, particularly due to U.S. tariffs and global trade tensions.
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