MID-SHIP Cement Report – Mar 17, 2025

March 17, 2025

Market Overview: 

The market remains active across all segments and regions despite the significant uncertainties. Factors impacting the dry bulk shipping market are shaped by economic, geopolitical, environmental, and industry-specific dynamics. The IMF forecasts global GDP growth at 3.2% for 2025, with China’s slowing growth juxtaposing India’s projected 6.5% growth. Escalating trade disputes, particularly U.S.-China tensions, rattle our markets. Tariffs on crude oil, refined products, and agricultural goods disrupt trade flows. Red Sea rerouting persists as Houthi attacks continue, and U.S.-initiated related military strikes this weekend. Compliance costs for fuel-efficient vessels or alternate fuels are squeezing margins, especially for older ships. Climate transition from El Nino to La Nina affects coal demand in Asia and grain harvests. Supply growth outpaces demand, weakening market conditions (BIMCO forecasts 2-3% fleet growth in 2025), while demand growth slows, pressured by flat iron ore shipments and renewables impacting coal trades. Growing capacity in Panamax and Supramax drag rates down as the Panama Canal normalized last year.

The U.S.A. origin or destination trade is particularly complex now, dealing with the potential repercussions of the added uncertainty of the pending hearing of the U.S. Trade Representative’s proposed additional fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-related vessels and ownership structures.

We will be sure to keep you posted on these developments.

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