MID-SHIP Fertilizer – August 4, 2025

August 4, 2025

Market Overview:

The Cape market was off almost $4,500 daily on the time charter average to end the week-over-week trading. Panamax was softer. Supra’s down in a narrow range. Handy-sizes continue in full-blown summer mode, lacking luster, trading down in a narrow range.

Last week was a busy week for U.S. Trade negotiations. The U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on India starting August 1, coupled with unspecified penalties for its continued purchase of Russian energy. On July 28, it was reported that President Trump planned secondary tariffs and sanctions on Russia to take effect in 12 days unless the Ukraine conflict ends, with severe penalties for countries importing Russian oil. US-China trade negotiations ended without a new deal by July 29, leaving two weeks to extend a deadline or face the resumption of historically high tariffs, with current rates at 30% for the U.S. and 10% for China after a temporary truce. On July 31, President Trump signed an order pausing higher tariffs on Mexico for 90 days, providing temporary relief as trade negotiations continue. President Trump signed an executive order for new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on 69 countries, effective August 7, further reshaping global trade dynamics.

This week, new U.S. “reciprocal” tariffs are set to take effect on August 7, with most trading partners facing 15-20% tariffs on exports to the U.S., while countries like India and South Africa could see higher rates (up to 30%), potentially escalating trade tensions. The U.S. is expected to raise tariffs on India to 30% this week due to its continued purchase of Russian oil, risking strained relations with a key partner unless trade negotiations yield a last-minute deal. Switzerland is anticipated to finalize a new trade agreement with the U.S. to counter a proposed 39% tariff, with talks likely intensifying this week to avoid economic fallout. Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing a U.S. Government sanctions ultimatum expiring this Friday.

For the stock market, with the August 7 deadline for U.S. trading partners to adjust currency practices or face higher tariffs, global markets are expected to remain volatile, potentially losing significant market cap as seen in recent weeks.

Subscribe below to receive the full report.