MID-SHIP Fertilizer – July 2, 2025
July 2, 2025
Market Overview:
It was a slow news day in the freight market, as summertime conditions and the pending Independence Day holiday tempered activity.
The past week was mixed with Capes down, Panamax up a tick, Supra up within a narrow range, and Handies neutral across both basins.
The Trump administration dominates the headlines across the globe, particularly with the mega-spending “One Big Beautiful Bill” passing a crucial vote in the Senate 51-50, with the VP casting the tie-breaking vote. The bill moves back to the House of Representatives for final approval due to differences between the original House and Senate versions. GOP fiscal hawks are critical in the House debate, as the Senate version is said to add significant numbers to the deficit.
While the U.S. and China trade “framework” is said to be in place, the deadline for the reimposition of reciprocal tariffs elsewhere looms large (July 8-9). The White House has downplayed the urgency of the deadline, with the Press Secretary stating on June 26, 2025, that it is “not critical.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated on June 27, 2025, that talks with over a dozen nations could extend into September 2025, with extensions likely for countries negotiating in “good faith.”
Brent declined to $67 on Monday as forecasts of another 411,000 b/d OPEC+ output hike in August and an easing of geopolitical risk in the Middle East weighed on prices. Israeli refinery resumes activities after being hit by Iranian missiles. OPEC+ is set to boost production by 411,000 b/d again in August as it looks to regain market share. If the output hike of 411,000 b/d is agreed, it would bring the total increase in supply from the group to 1.78 million b/d this year according to Reuters.
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