MID-SHIP Fertilizer – November 3, 2025
November 3, 2025
Market Overview:
We ended the prior week for Capes (180,000 DWT) on Friday, October 24, at $23,811, down from $25,882 the week before. The market faced unstable conditions from Monday through Wednesday before regaining momentum and ending the week on a positive note. On Monday, we stood at $23,534 (down from $25,944 the previous Monday), averaged $23,580 mid-week, and finished at $24,288 on October 31. The Time Charter Average begins this week at $23,955. The FFA curve on Monday shows November at $23,396 (down from $24,400 for October a week earlier) and December at $24,346 (down from November $24,721). Q4 is now at $24,062 (from $24,583 last week), suggesting near-term caution but a constructive outlook toward year-end. The Cape market continues to be driven by iron ore pricing and Chinese import volumes. The benchmark Brazil-to-China voyage was mixed throughout the week and opened at $23.01, with signs of positional strength.
The Panamax market improved last week, with daily averages ranging between $17,292 and $16,962. The Trans-Atlantic round is currently assessed at $16,709 (down from $18,623 one week ago), and the Pacific round for a Baltic type is at $16,263 (down from $17,565 one week ago). On Friday, October 24, the time-charter average traded at $17,318. To start this week, the spot average on Monday is $16,207 per day. Forward levels indicate $16,111 for November and $16,257 for December. Q4 is estimated at $16,647, and Q1 2026 is assessed at $14,104 daily.
The Supramax market traded within a narrow range last week. We started last week’s physical market with the Supra 63 at $17,208. The segment moved down to $16,966 at mid-week, and ended the week at $16,762. We begin this week at $16,688. The U.S. Gulf-to-Asia benchmark front-haul for the Supra 63 is assessed at $26,546. Forward levels show November at $16,227, December at $16,163, and Q4 at $16,699 (up from $16,366 last week). Q1 2026 is estimated at $14,076.
Handy-size rates are dropping slightly from last week. The daily average rates moved from $15,736 to $15,243, and we start the new week at a slightly reduced $15,131. The U.S. Gulf-to-Europe trip is assessed at $20,971 (down from $22,450 the prior week). The spot physical market continued to be positional (regional market specific) and volatile based on cargo size and dates. Forward averages stand at $14,470 for November and $14,220 for December. The Q4 average assessment indicates $14,795. Then, in Q1 2026, the average estimated value increased to $10,968.
A 27K metric tons stem was recently fixed via Brazil to USG, laycan Mid-November was done around USD 37.50 per metric tons. Canpotex is out with their usual NOPAC to Singapore /Japan or ECSA options for TCT. Understand last week Canpotex fixed an Ultramax basis delivery Far East at USD 11K DOP.
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