MID-SHIP Fertilizer – October 6, 2025
October 6, 2025
Market Overview:
We ended the week for Capes 180,000 DWT on Friday, September 26, at $30,076. The market was volatile to the downside throughout the week. On Monday, last week, we were at $29,228. The average was $23,968 by mid-week and ended the week at $22,595. The Time Charter Average starts this week at $23,453. Monday’s FFA forward curve points to October assessed at $26,007. November at $26,821. Q4 at $25,980, indicating some optimism nearby and doubt regarding the Cape market for the year’s end. This market continues to be heavily influenced by the price of iron ore and by import volumes to China. The benchmark Brazil to China voyage was mixed throughout the week and assessed at $23.97 to start the new trading week, dropping from almost $26.00 last Monday.
The Panamax physical market was a bit softer last week, and the daily average trading was between $16,358 and $14,961 (as compared to a range of $18,027 to $16,603 two weeks ago). The Trans-Atlantic round is currently assessed at $15,045. In the Pacific, a round voyage for a Baltic type is estimated at $15,145. On Friday, September 26, the time charter average traded at $16,484. To start the new week, the spot average on Monday was $14,886 per day. The forward curve indicates $15,545 for October, $15,154 for November. Q4 is estimated at $15,115, and Q1 2026 is assessed at $12,453 daily.
The Supramax market again traded within a narrow range last week. We started last week’s physical market with the Supra 63 at $18,683 (as compared to $18,869 two weeks ago). The segment moved to $18,537 at mid-week and ended the week at $18,288; to start the new session, we are at $18,239. We start the week with the benchmark front haul rate in the market (U.S. Gulf to Asia) for the Supra 63, which was assessed at $30,950 – down from $31,350 two weeks prior. The October forward assessment is $17,555, November is at $15,889, and Q4 is assessed at $16,240; Q1 2026 is estimated at $14,891.
The Handysize market improved last week, continuing its firm trend. The daily average rates moved from $15,296 to $15,616 (up from $14,482 to $14,671 two weeks ago), and we start the new week at a steady $15,600. The trip from the U.S. Gulf to Europe was assessed at $22,229 (up from $20,393 two weeks ago). The spot physical market continued to be positional (regional market specific) and volatile. The forward average of the daily time charter routes points to slightly softer levels to finish October, and November looks lower at $14,030. The Q4 average assessment indicates $14,127, up from $13,390 two weeks ago. Then Q1 disappoints, moving down to $12,120 per day.
Overall, the market remained optimistic at the start of the new week and was supported by grain and mineral activities.
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