MID-SHIP Fertilizer – September 8, 2025
September 8, 2025
Market Overview:
We ended the week for Capes 180,000 DWT on Friday, August 29, at $24,257, down from $27,323 in our last report two weeks ago. The market was volatile throughout the week, trading in a narrow range and picking up from Thursday to Friday, similar to the prior week. On Monday, last week, we were at $24,455. The average was $22,994 by mid-week and ended the week at $23,513. The Time Charter Average starts this week at $24,150. Monday’s FFA forward curve points to September assessed at $26,392. October at $28,513. Q3 is assessed at $24,714, and Q4 at $26,414, indicating some trepidation at the moment in terms of the Cape market for the year’s balance. This market continues to be heavily influenced by China, where things are currently tough. The benchmark Brazil to China voyage was mixed throughout the week and stands at about $24.00 to start the new trading week.
While the Panamax market seemed firmer and improved last week, the daily averages traded within a narrow range and improved to start the new week. The Trans-Atlantic round is currently assessed at $21,018 (up from $17,855 two weeks ago). In the Pacific, a round voyage for a Baltic type is estimated at $13,741, down from $14,402 two weeks prior. On Friday, August 29, the time charter average traded at $16,623 (up from $14,601 two weeks ago in our last report). The daily time charter average started last week at $16,313, traded down to $15,500, and then recovered to $16,221 to end the week. The spot average is up a tick on Monday, to start the new week at $16,613. The forward curve moves up a bit in September and October, indicating $17,449 for September and $17,238 for October. Q3 is estimated at $17,033, and Q4 2025 is assessed at a lower $16,203 daily.
The Supramax market remained firm, trading along a narrow range last week, and starts the new week slightly improved. We started last week’s physical market with the Supra 63 at $18,539. The segment moved to $18,538 at mid-week and ended the week at $18,399; this Monday, we are at $18,499. We start the week with the benchmark front haul rate in the market (U.S. Gulf to Asia) for the Supra 63, which was assessed at $30,107, up from $28,454 two weeks ago, and trading in the physical market is volatile depending upon position and cargo size. The September forward assessment is $19,035 (steady as compared to $19,042 two weeks ago); October is at $18,938, and Q3 is assessed at $17,236; and Q4 is estimated at $17,471.
The Handy-size market moved up last week. The daily average rates moved from $14,019 to $14,165 as compared to $12,635 to $13,054 two weeks ago, and we start the new week at a steady $14,203. The trip from the U.S. Gulf to Europe was up at $20,214 as compared to $17,721 prior to the Labor Day Holiday. The spot physical market continued in a volatile position to the upside. The forward curve of the average of the time charter daily routes points to slightly improved levels. September is assessed at $14,620. October at $14,740. The Q3 assessment indicates $12,055, and Q4 at $13,890.
Overall, the market continued to be optimistic at the start of the new week.
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