MID-SHIP Report: Dry Bulk Freight Market – April 15, 2026

April 15, 2026

Happy, for most, were the days when the supply of ships and cargo demand were actually the primary drivers for the freight market. In this report, we again see the extent to which geopolitical events create inefficiencies in the markets that should, otherwise, be relatively balanced and stable.

Since our last report, we have been experiencing an extended roller coaster ride in the oil and downstream refined products markets, creating continued concern for the supply of bunkers and other essential transportation fuels such as jet fuel. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz (through which over 20% of the global oil supply, 30% of LNG supply, almost one quarter of derivative oil products, and over 30% of fertilizers transit annually) has continued to stretch the rational market from operating as it should. Limits on sales of fuels to the open market, release of strategic stockpiles for immediate market pricing corrections, and concern for long-term pricing models have upended many traditional trade routes in the Indian Ocean basin and globally. Immediate effects to the global fertilizer markets and the resulting effects that this will have on grain production and shipments in Q3 and Q4 (which remains to be quantified) are creating an edginess to the forward market to such an extent that many owners are either rating forward business very conservatively or not at all.

As if we do not have enough concerns, increased delays for transiting the Panama Canal, for which advance booking requirements are now stretching out into late June and July, are having a dramatic effect on pricing and planning for inter-oceanic trade flows. Through a combination of perfectly timed maintenance-related transit restrictions, a significant increase in tanker transits (focused on USG origin production), and an extremely complicated and time-sensitive transit booking process, delays to ships going through the Panama Canal have jumped from 2-3 days to well over 2 weeks and longer, depending on how owners plan the transit process. This has created a 2-pronged effect. Ship owners are passing on the additional costs of Canal transit planning to the cargo and/or charterers of very time or price-sensitive cargoes are electing to contract for earlier but longer duration transits that avoid the Panama Canal entirely. This disruption to efficient transiting is increasing the utilization ratio for the global dry bulk fleet and adding to increased pricing pressure. With transit slots for dry bulk ships going up to USD 500,000 and tanker slots going for more than USD 1 million, this is a significant factor that is just starting to be factored into forward planning. If water levels were to drop further or should maintenance restrictions ramp up, there could be a knock-on effect on the market.

If the above were not really enough for the market, the threats by Iran to restrict transits in the Red Sea, the call by US authorities to phase-out the recently phased-in EU ETS program, and looming show downs on ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz and/or broaden the conflict further, are making many feel that we are in for a longer hall of continuous disruptions if a comprehensive plan to end the conflict in the Middle East is not reached in the next few weeks. In the meantime, place your bets!!

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