MID-SHIP Report: Dry Bulk Freight Market – December 3, 2025
December 3, 2025
Cape-size vessels have been on a tear in recent weeks. Reaching $44,700 in the time charter averages. Up from $9,100 at the start of the year. The year has been volatile for our biggest bulkers, but the trend has been and remains upward. The Cape market went parabolic in December 2025. Today’s Baltic Exchange forward assessments are forecasting a return to earth and average time charter rates of $21,800 for January and $16,000 for February 2026 paper.
Despite confirmed purchases by Chinese buyers of U.S. soybeans, totaling around two million tons for shipment in December and January, these volumes are nowhere near the reported end-of-October trade deal commitment of twelve million tons. The current supply of vessels is translating into a bearish tone for the Panamax sector. After peaking close to USD 18,000 per day recently, the Panamax Time Charter Average has taken a breather and dipped below USD 17,000/day. Concerns are rising that the Panamax market may enter 2026 under significant pressure, with weakening demand and growing vessel supply; the scales are tipping in favor of softer rates in the new year. The January and February forward curve indicates rates reducing to the low to mid $14,000 per day levels.
The Supramax market began December firm in the U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic due to tight tonnage and steady demand, but rates are expected to soften later as vessel supply improves. In the Pacific, sentiment remains mixed and slightly weak, with selective demand offering limited support amid subdued NoPac activity and ample tonnage.
The Handy-size market remains firm, especially in the U.S. Gulf and the east coast of South America. Sentiment remains balanced in most regions, with sentiment in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean leaning towards the softer side. The market overall maintained positive momentum, as evidenced by the BHSI TC average, which increased to USD 15,127. The Handy-size market on the East Coast of South America is extremely tight for December dates, with a very low vessel count. Although demand is not particularly strong, the lack of tonnage is pushing time-charter levels upward. Market sentiment suggests a softer environment from mid-January onward, driven by weaker demand and a normalization of vessel availability.
Since our previous update two weeks ago, the dry cargo market in Southeast Asia/Far East and Australia has remained relatively stable. Time charter (TC) earnings for Handies have held at similar levels, while Supramax and Ultramax indices have edged upward.
Bunker (VLSFO) prices in Singapore have dropped to USD 444/MT, with the push for peace in Ukraine and the potential for increased Russian supply contributing to lower prices. OPEC has also advised that it will pause any production increases in Q1 2026.
In the domestic market, low water is restricting barge traffic along the inland river system for the 3rd year in a row. At the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers in Cairo, IL, river levels have dropped 9 feet below the 10-year average, with New Orleans reporting its lowest levels in 10 years as well. The low water and accompanying restrictions are expected to hold through December, with the coming steep drops in temperature expected to compound the delays in all operations. The Upper Mississippi River navigation season has ended. The USDA reported grain barge freight for St. Louis to NOLA was trading at 456.56% of tariff as of the week ending November 25, 2025. For the week ending November 22, barged grain movements totaled 874,250 tons. This was 12% less than the previous week and down 2% from the same period last year.
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