MID-SHIP Report: Dry Bulk Freight Market – Mar 13, 2025

March 13, 2025

The Capesize market during the first two months of 2025, bulker newbuilding contracting dropped 92% year-on-year to the lowest level in at least 30 years, according to recent analysis from BIMCO. The Capesize market has experienced a notable upswing recently, driven by strong demand from miners and limited vessel availability. The Capesize index has seen significant increases, particularly on routes like Brazil to China, with early April cargoes hitting higher numbers. This momentum is attributed to heightened activity in the Pacific and Atlantic regions, especially from Brazil and West Africa to China. The forward freight agreements markets are signaling a pause in recent upward momentum, and continued positional volatility is expected as fleet fundamentals favor vessel operators.

The Panamax market has been a roller coaster over the last two weeks. The Time Charter Average dropped 15% in the first week of March but has managed to bounce back to $10,000. Uncertainty remains the leitmotif. The Supramax/Ultramax market remains positional in many areas, as the broader dry bulk market navigates multiple factors, including daily shifting tariffs, geopolitical developments, and the looming United States Trade Representative fees tied to Chinese vessels calling at U.S. ports. Various USTR clauses continue to circulate in the market, influencing current business involving the United States. Black Sea/Med rates had remained steady despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty; however, recent trends show an upward shift, with levels now exceeding previous fixtures. In the Pacific, some owners have revised rates higher, citing increased demand and a potential tightening of available tonnage. However, uncertainty around Indonesian coal pricing and stagnant demand in the North Pacific should remain a concern for owners with vessels in the region.

The hot topic, in addition to tariffs and potential tariffs, is the potential for port fees on Chinese vessels calling at U.S. ports. Despite the uncertainty, the number of handy size fixtures in the U.S. Gulf and U.S. East Coast has increased this week.

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