MID-SHIP Report: Dry Bulk Freight Market – May 22, 2025

May 22, 2025

The Capesize market continued its upward trend, with the BCI 5TC rising to $15,605, driven by strong iron ore demand from Western Australia to China and renewed activity from major miners. Rates on the C5 route ranged from $8.20 to $8.45, while the C3 index also climbed, reflecting increased activity in the South Atlantic. Notable fixtures included Vale and Javelin securing vessels for Brazil-China routes at rates between $18.60 and $19.00.

In contrast, the Panamax sector experienced a broad decline, with the BPI time charter index dropping to $11,419 amid weak demand and growing vessel availability. The Atlantic basin saw limited fresh cargo, leading to rate corrections, while Asia faced a wide bid-offer spread that slowed activity. Fixtures were sparse, with only a few reported deals in both regions, including trips via South America and Indonesia.

The Supramax market showed mixed signals, with positive sentiment in the U.S. Gulf but easing demand in the South Atlantic and parts of Asia, resulting in a slight dip in the 11TC average to $12,467. Meanwhile, the Handysize segment remained strong across both basins, supported by fresh demand in the Continent-Mediterranean and tight tonnage in the U.S. Gulf and South Atlantic. The 7TC average rose to $10,328, reflecting firm charterer interest and higher bids in Asia.

The global dry bulk fleet continues to expand, reaching over 5,330 vessels by the end of 2024, with projections suggesting it will grow to 5,603 vessels in 2025 and 5,818 by 2026. However, new building deliveries are expected to decline sharply this year – down 75% from 2024 levels – due to rising costs and geopolitical headwinds, particularly U.S. tariffs on Chinese shipyards. This has led some shipowners to delay or redirect orders to non-Chinese yards despite higher costs and longer lead times.

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